Οι τιμές του αργού πετρελαίου πλησιάζουν και πάλι τα 100 δολάρια ανά βαρέλι, ενώ η τιμή των συμβολαίων μελλοντικής εκπλήρωσης (futures) για το ντίζελ έχει φτάσει σε ιστορικά υψηλά επίπεδα.
Σύμφωνα με πληροφορίες από το Axios, οι επενδυτές αρχίζουν να συνειδητοποιούν ότι οι αυξημένες τιμές του πετρελαίου, που προκύπτουν από τις συγκρούσεις με το Ιράν, δεν είναι κάτι που μπορούν να παραβλέπουν.
Η αύξηση των τιμών ενέργειας έχει αντίκτυπο σε ολόκληρη την οικονομία, επιβαρύνοντας τις επιχειρήσεις, τους πολίτες και τις κυβερνήσεις παγκοσμίως, οι οποίες πλέον αντιμετωπίζουν υψηλότερα επιτόκια δανεισμού.
Η άνοδος της ενεργειακής τιμής αποτελεί καθοριστικό παράγοντα που οδηγεί σε αύξηση των αποδόσεων των ομολόγων και προκαλεί ανησυχία στους υπεύθυνους χάραξης πολιτικής στις ΗΠΑ και άλλες ανεπτυγμένες χώρες.
Aφού είχαν υποχωρήσει από τα αρχικά τους ύψη στην αρχή της σύγκρουσης, οι τιμές του πετρελαίου άρχισαν ξανά να ανεβαίνουν τον Ιούλιο. Τότε σημειώθηκαν επιθέσεις σε εμπορικά πλοία στα Στενά του Ορμούζ που αναζωπύρωσαν τις εχθροπραξίες. Ο πρόεδρος των ΗΠΑ δήλωσε ότι το «μνημόνιο κατανόησης» μεταξύ των δύο χωρών ήταν «τελειωμένο».
Tις τελευταίες ημέρες έχουν κλιμακωθεί οι εντάσεις.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil,the global benchmark,was trading at $95 on Wednesday afternoon after previously hitting lows of $80 just a month earlier.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates and other forms of borrowing, hovered around 4.8% on Wednesday after reaching its highest level in nearly three years earlier this week.
The yields on government bonds worldwide are also at multi-year highs.
The 10-year British government bond (gilt) reached its highest level since 2008 while the long-term German bond climbed to its peak since 2011. Additionally, Japan’s government bonds hit their highest levels since 1996 considering rising energy prices affecting an oil-importing nation like Japan.
The stock market has been largely directionless over the past week.
The rise in oil prices is fueling inflation expectations as people anticipate that higher energy costs will increase both production expenses and transportation costs for goods across various regions.
This trend impacts government bond yields as investors seek higher interest rates to offset the diminishing value of their money due to inflationary pressures.
Such inflation expectations also influence stock valuations according to some analysts — future earnings projections appear less optimistic when factoring in elevated inflation rates.
The correlation between oil prices and the yield on the 10-year U.S.Treasury bond is nearing its strongest level in five years according to Morgan Stanley’s analysis. (This indicates they are moving upward concurrently.)
The relationship between stocks and oil is currently at one of its most negative points ever recorded. (Stocks decline while oil prices rise.)
Bond yields are increasing for various reasons — including unsustainable fiscal deficits and geopolitical uncertainties along with advancements in artificial intelligence that have been discussed previously by analysts.
The connection between stocks and oil can be complex; however it’s clear that war drives up stock values within sectors such as energy significantly higher.
The initial shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict severely impacted stocks back in early March but they rebounded partially following a ceasefire agreement reached between both parties by June.
Energy prices also fell as it became evident that other factors — primarily reduced crude imports from China — were keeping them under control.
These days may now belong to history: “For global markets, pain from oil has become too significant to ignore,” wrote investor Bob Elliott in a note early Wednesday morning.